US Election Prediction Contest

Using solely available social media data of the two presidential campaigns (and Mitt Romney), eg:

• number of followers on twitter
• number of youtube views
• number of “likes” on facebook
• etc…

find a formula that will forecast the popular vote (not the electoral votes).

Using only Facebook “likes” from the USA, a basic level formula could be:

Obama score = Obama facebook “likes” / (number of  Obama “likes” + Romney “likes”) * 100

= 560304/ (560304+206184)*100

= 560304/766488 *100 = 73,1%

Data from Wisdom Microstrategy app; screenshots below.

Enter your formula here (clicking will take you to a google form).

Only entries before the first exit polls will be accepted.

Resources:

Digital Campaigns May Decide the Election

One response to “US Election Prediction Contest”

1. Xiaoyang Tan

US election prediction

Barack Obama scores= likes on Facebook31810667 + taking about this on Facebook2401788+ friends of mine who like this17 + connections on Linked ln500 + mentions on Topsy website by the day of 3th November227672 + followers on Twitter =34440644
Fans of Barack Obama are people with high education or they are woman, single or they are from multinational.

Mitt Romney scores = likes on Facebook11946342 + taking about this on Facebook 2442749 + friends of mine who like this2 + connections on Linked In 500 + mentions on Topsy website by the day of 3th November157989 + followers on Twitter 1.6million = 16147582

Total of all data:   56140644+16147582=72288226
Barack Obama(%): 56140644/72288226=77.66%
Mitt Romney(%):16147582/72288266=22.34%

According to the data collected,  Barack Obama has a big chance to win the election. Anyway, good luck to Mitt Romney.