UE-UK Best Case Scenario

Summer 2016IMG_6799
-Tories/Labour in internal turmoil.
-Article 50 not invoked
Autumn 2016
-New interim PM calls new election
-UE takes opportunity for reforms
Winter 2016 – Early 2017
-UE submits reforms to new parliament, which accepts them
-Everybody saves face
-Business as pre-referendum

Irish and Swedish Fans at Euro2016

The better side of Football fans.

Both Irish and Swedish fans singing Abba’s “Dancing Queen”.

When Placement Adverising Goes Wrong

Are these people really lucky? 

 

The Republican Party got what it deserved!

The Republican Party got what it deserved!

If you are at the commanding heights of an economic and financial system the one-man-one-vote equation is a problem for you. You know that all the hard work and all the wealth you have accumulated does not give you more say than someone who is unemployed. The problem is all the more acute when trying to sway legislation in your favor. In terms of potential votes, there simply are not enough like you compared with the millions of workers, the poor  and the unemployed.

This inconvenient statistic leads to two complementary strategies.

The first is to reduce the number of people who would end up voting. This could be done by either preventing them to access the voting booth or poison politics to such an extent that people will see no point in voting… or do both.

The second strategy is to split the remaining votes. In order to do so, the establishment of the Republican party proposed a Faustian pact to the socially conservative electorate. The terms were in essence as follows:

“We will protect your way of life and from state interference and in return, you let us run the economy.”

In practice this translates into: “you can teach evolution and we can hire migrants”. Both require weak or no government oversight.

Abundant, sometimes cheaper labor contributes to potentially larger profits. Immigration, whether legal or illegal, permanent or seasonal, is a natural solution to shortages in the work place.

But abundant immigration also contributes to changing the physical and cultural landscape. This is why the Faustian pact has become increasingly one-sided. Real wages have stagnated for the past four decades and migrants brought their way of life and contributed to change the landscape both physically and culturally.

wage_stagnation

This is also why the socially conservatives are in revolt. Up to a point, they were able to grudgingly withstand increasing wealth disparities as long as their communities remained untouched. But their perception is that now, their beliefs are no longer protected. They have nothing to tangible to show for having entered into this covenant.

The establishment’s economic interest diverged to such a degree that little more than lip service could be paid to socially conservative policies.

Unlike in Western Europe where the socially conservatives can find a distinct political voice (UKIP, Front National, etc…) the Republican Party has been until now the single expression of these two constituencies.

Now the quarrel is in the open and the socially conservatives are taking matters into their own hands.

What Youtube Data Says About the GOP Presidential Race

Donald Trump not only leads the polls, but so far, his youtube channel is also the most watched.

By Average number of views  as of Friday 29th of January 2016
Trump 152,710.00
Trump* 36,544.00
Rubio 28,467.21
Carson 13,483.30
Bush 11,769.13
Cruz 5,583.50

*without the record 1.7m viewers from his announcement.

Conversely, the data is grim for Jeb Bush. While his channel gets twice as many views on average than Cruz, relatively few people have indicated an interest in keeping in touch.

By Number of Subscribers  as of Friday 29th of January 2016
Cruz 26,848
Trump 16,723
Carson 16,485
Rubio 14,066
Bush 4,541

This is probably the most worrying statistic. While averages views may reflect the interest of both supporters, detractors, or mere curiosity, subscribing to a channel is more likely to indicate a clear preference. Detractors and others, may be less likely to make this commitment and might not want their subscription to be mistaken for an endorsement.

Analysing Youtube data, also gives a glimpse on how the candidates’ teams use this particular platform.

Cruz for instance, publishes several videos a day. Indeed, Cruz’ team published more videos in the past four days than the 19 the Trump’s team published in nine months, when his first official video was published. This relative abundance may, at least in part, explain why Cruz’ number are so paradoxical; because there are so many videos published in a given day, there is less anticipation.

This GOP race has also been characterised by controversy. Unlike twitter or facebook, youtube offers a way to evaluate how controversial a message is: this is the likes/dislikes ratio.

According to this ratio, if the GOP were looking for the least controversial candidate then Rubio is the man.

Least controversial (more likes than dislikes as a ratio)
 as of Friday 29th of January 2016
Rubio 24,74
Carson 16.9
Cruz 5,77
Trump 1.15
Bush 0.34

While Trump has just about more likes than dislikes (1.15 likes for every dislike) Jeb Bush’s message simply do not resonate with his viewers. Strikingly and probably very disappointingly for the Bush’ family, Barbara Bush’s video was disliked almost five more times than it was liked.

Views 68,047 Likes 116 Dislikes 524

If the campaign team were hoping for a boost by bringing a big gun, this particular shot misfired.

Kindle-like stats

While the statistics above were compiled from publicly available data, a campaign manager has access to a crucial set of data: the average view duration. Just like Amazon is able to know how fast we read a book on a Kindle and at what point, if any, we quit reading a particular book, youtube offers publishers the ability to know the “Es­tim­ated av­er­age minutes watched per view for the se­lec­ted con­tent, date range, re­gion and oth­er fil­ters.”

Screen Shot 2016-01-31 at 19.09.07

To be more specific and useful, are there images or words during a given video that make viewership drop? If so, why and should anything be done about it? One way to go about optimising messages and images, is to follow the Buzzfeed A/B testing approach. This, would require publishing near identical videos and select the one that makes people watch till the end

Download the Youtube Data Spreadsheet.

College apps should emphasize passion not accomplishments, says Harvard report

Do colleges put too much pressure on students to impress admissions committees with achievements and accolades? A new report from the Harvard Graduate School of Education recommends limiting the number of advanced placement classes and extracurricular activities that students can list on applications. Judy Woodruff learns more from Richard Weissbourd.

Source: College apps should emphasize passion not accomplishments, says Harvard report

Uber Launches Car Sharing in London

Read the press release below.

Source: Psst, London! There’s a cheaper way to ride arriving Friday

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