US Election Prediction Contest

Using solely available social media data of the two presidential campaigns (Barack Obama and Mitt Romney), eg:

  • number of followers on twitter
  • number of youtube views
  • number of “likes” on facebook
  • etc…

find a formula that will forecast the popular vote (not the electoral votes).

Using only Facebook “likes” from the USA, a basic level formula could be:

Obama score = Obama facebook “likes” / (number of  Obama “likes” + Romney “likes”) * 100

= 560304/ (560304+206184)*100

= 560304/766488 *100 = 73,1%

Data from Wisdom Microstrategy app; screenshots below.

Enter your formula here (clicking will take you to a google form).

Only entries before the first exit polls will be accepted.


Digital Campaigns May Decide the Election

One response to “US Election Prediction Contest

  1. US election prediction 

    Barack Obama scores= likes on Facebook31810667 + taking about this on Facebook2401788+ friends of mine who like this17 + connections on Linked ln500 + mentions on Topsy website by the day of 3th November227672 + followers on Twitter =34440644 
    Fans of Barack Obama are people with high education or they are woman, single or they are from multinational.  

    Mitt Romney scores = likes on Facebook11946342 + taking about this on Facebook 2442749 + friends of mine who like this2 + connections on Linked In 500 + mentions on Topsy website by the day of 3th November157989 + followers on Twitter 1.6million = 16147582

    Total of all data:   56140644+16147582=72288226
    Barack Obama(%): 56140644/72288226=77.66%
    Mitt Romney(%):16147582/72288266=22.34%

    According to the data collected,  Barack Obama has a big chance to win the election. Anyway, good luck to Mitt Romney. 

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